Lessons of the last financial crisis

first_imgThe last global financial crisis was just beginning when Niall Ferguson published his seminal book “The Ascent of Money” in 2008. He came to the Harvard Kennedy School on Wednesday to warn that history could repeat itself.In an interview conducted by Graham Allison, the Douglas Dillon Professor of Government at the School, Ferguson recalled that just as he was making final revisions to the book, it became clear to him that the Lehman Brothers investment bank was about to fold and the crisis was soon to begin.“I had to rewrite the introduction and the conclusion, changing the future tense to the present,” said Ferguson, formerly the Laurence Tisch Professor of History at Harvard and now a senior fellow at the Hoover Institution. The book broke the global financial system down into six main components: money, bonds, equity, insurance, housing, and globalization. “I presented the book as six stories, six reasons why the crisis was happening just as you were reading it.”To understand 2008 fully, he said, one needed to look at how those six factors worked together. Of the common theory that the crisis happened because of deregulation, he said, “You should dismiss that as a cartoon.”A new edition of the book will include two fresh chapters that look at the crisis and how it avoided turning into a second Great Depression. As Allison suggested, one saving grace in 2008 was applied history, specifically Federal Reserve chair Ben Bernanke’s studies of the 1930s disaster. “That’s a fantastic example,” Ferguson said. “Bernanke had studied the Great Depression, so as the crisis intensified he was in the position to identify and recognize the symptoms of something much bigger than anyone in the room had experienced in their lifetimes.”Ferguson’s own Harvard students, he said, could have anticipated the choices that Bernanke would make. “If you had taken the class on financial history I was teaching at the time, you would have read Milton Friedman and Anna Schwartz’s ‘A Monetary History of the United States, 1867‒1960.’ And you would have known that the Fed [in 2008] would do exactly the opposite of what the Fed did during the Great Depression, because they did everything wrong the first time.” “The breakdown of [China-U.S. financial relations] is bad news for the biggest corporations in the world, and that’s what I am keeping an eye out for.” — Niall Ferguson One of the main reasons another depression was avoided, Ferguson said, was the global component, namely the stimulus money the U.S. received from China. “If the U.S. had done everything it did and China had done nothing, things would have worked out very different,” he said. The alliance proved so pivotal that Ferguson termed it “Chinamerica,” a pun on “chimera,” since it was always a little mysterious. “The relationship survived the crisis despite some pretty nasty rhetoric; we called them currency manipulators. But China didn’t sell their great accumulation of U.S. bonds.”China, he said, may well be the source of the next global crisis. “People have been predicting a China crisis on an annual basis for the past 15 to 20 years,” he said, and the decline of China-U.S. financial relations may prove the tipping point. “The breakdown of Chinamerica is bad news for the biggest corporations in the world, and that’s what I am keeping an eye out for. The best-case scenario is that China’s growth rate steadily declines. In the worst case, there is a crisis. Either way, the outlook is a somewhat bleak one.”One ominous sign, he said, lies in the current political climate. “The Republican Party, in embracing [President] Trump’s populism, threw its fiscal responsibility out the window. Suddenly deficits don’t matter. This is a problem that is going to get serious relatively quickly. I find it hard to figure out what the politics will be when there is no credible fiscal conservative left.”During audience questions afterwards, one student asked Ferguson if he’d neglected to mention the role of fraud and other white-collar crime in triggering the 2008 crisis. Ferguson replied that almost no bankers ever went to jail.“Is that because we decided to turn a blind eye to white-collar crime, or is it because they committed no crimes, [they only] bent the rules? I think it’s the latter. It is really hard to get convictions when people were essentially complying with regulations,” he said.But doing what’s strictly legal, he emphasized, isn’t the same as doing the right thing. “As long as they were compliant, nobody felt any compunction about doing things that were morally wrong, if not technically criminal.”last_img read more

Casting Set for Broadway-Bound Come From Away

first_img Related Shows We now have casting for the much-buzzed about Broadway-bound Come From Away. Great White Way favorites Chad Kimball, Jenn Colella and more will continue in their roles in the new musical when it starts performances on the Main Stem in February 2017 at a Shubert theater to be announced.Along with Tony nominee Kimball (Memphis) and Colella (If/Then), the Broadway cast will include Petrina Bromley (Stratford’s As You Like It), Geno Carr (The Old Globe’s Dr. Seuss’ How The Grinch Stole Christmas), Joel Hatch (Annie), Rodney Hicks (The Scottsboro Boys), Kendra Kassebaum (Wicked), Lee MacDougall (Stratford’s The Music Man), Caesar Samayoa (Sister Act), Q. Smith (Mary Poppins), Astrid Van Wieren (Mamma Mia!) and Sharon Wheatley (Avenue Q).With a book, music and lyrics by Irene Sankoff and David Hein, Come From Away will be directed by Christopher Ashley and choreographed by Kelly Devine. In a heartbeat, 38 planes and 6,579 passengers were forced to land in Gander, Newfoundland, doubling the population of one small town on the edge of the world. On September 11, 2001 the world stopped. On September 12, their stories moved us all.After acclaimed engagements at La Jolla Playhouse and Seattle Repertory Theatre, the new tuner will now head to Washington D.C.’s Ford’s Theatre (September 2 through October 9), and Toronto’s Royal Alexandra Theatre (November 15 through January 8). The Broadway company is also set to play Toronto. Chad Kimball Come From Away ‘Come From Away'(Photo: Chris Bennion)center_img from $49.00 View Comments Star Fileslast_img read more

Tax Schools.

first_imgThe University of Georgia, Internal Revenue Service and Georgia Department of Revenue will have four Farm and Small Business Income Tax Schools in November and December.The tax schools focus on helping the people who prepare tax returns for farms and small businesses keep up with tax changes each year.For the fourth year, UGA will also offer three Agricultural Tax Issues and Form Preparation Workshops. These are for tax preparers who have many farm clients and who attend one of the two-day tax schools.Four Georgia Sites, DatesThe tax schools are set for four Georgia sites and dates: Gainesville Nov. 16-17, Tifton Nov. 20-21, Macon Nov. 28-29 and Statesboro Dec. 12-13.Each day of classes will begin at 8:15 a.m. and end at 4:30 p.m. The sessions will focus on farm issues, electronic filing, new tax legislation, issues for older taxpayers, depreciation and many other farm and small business tax matters.The issues-and-forms workshops will be in Jefferson Nov. 15, Tifton Nov. 22, Macon Nov. 27 and Statesboro Dec. 12. Each begins at 9 a.m. and ends at 3:30 p.m.To learn more about the tax schools or workshops, or to preregister, call the county Extension Service office. Or call Verna Kea at (912) 386-3416.last_img read more

Digital future of banking requires new leadership model

first_imgThe banking industry is trying to respond to an increasingly turbulent business environment, where legacy leadership and existing cultures are being challenged. Not only do leaders need to articulate a vision for a future of increasing customer expectations, greater competition and advancing technology, but also provide the resources to become digital technology organizations.Some people argue that completely new leadership skills will be required to survive in the digital age. Others believe that leaders should go back to the essentials established decades ago, not letting change distract or disrupt an organization on a managerial level.A joint research project between MIT Sloan Management Review and Deloitte, found that a blend of both perspectives may be required. In other words, while core leadership skills will stay the same, digital disruption will require new skills to be added to the ‘leadership handbook’. ShareShareSharePrintMailGooglePinterestDiggRedditStumbleuponDeliciousBufferTumblr continue reading »last_img read more

Loan Zone: How the pandemic and PPP have ‘turbo-charged’ new business lending strategies

first_img ShareShareSharePrintMailGooglePinterestDiggRedditStumbleuponDeliciousBufferTumblr continue reading » It’s been more than four months since the coronavirus pandemic halted the U.S. economy, closing businesses and offices across the country. Many credit unions that participated in business lending had portfolios heavily focused on commercial real estate lending—today, they are recognizing the need to diversify and expand their business member banking model to reduce CRE concentration risk.“The pandemic almost turbo-charges the transition that credit unions need to take away from a CRE-only focused model,” Jim Hanson, principal at JDH Consulting, noted on a recent Abrigo webinar, “Crisis Business Membership Strategy in 2020: Adapting Technology and Executing in the New Normal.”The Small Business Administration’s Paycheck Protection Program, aimed at mitigating the economic impact of the pandemic on small businesses, has been a critical foothold for community financial institutions seeking to obtain and diversify their business lending relationships.last_img read more

Sign up for the international webinar and B2B meetings: Rethinking Tourism B2B online

first_imgRethinking Tourism B2B event Do you have Linkedin? If not, open an account and arrange B2B meetings. Sign up here and select the webinars you want to attend and mark your availability for B2B meetings. As the event is international, almost all webinars will be held in English. The theme of the two-day event is Rethinking Tourism which will be discussed on both days in the morning as well as webinars / discussions will be organized on the b2match platform, followed by B2B online meetings for companies in tourism and all those who do business with such companies. This year it is clear to everyone – there will be a change in business models, behaviors and habits of tourists and new tourist paradigms, both local and national. That is why the word that dominates the global tourism narrative – rethink. Online matching B2B event Rethinking Tourism ICT for tourism (Big data and digitalization in tourism, ICT services for active life in coastal areas), Integrated and sustainable tourism (Tourism and rural development, development of tourism in protected natural areas, indicators of sustainable tourism, impact of cruisers on ecosystems), Cultural heritage and tourism (Use of cultural tangible and intangible heritage in tourism, digital innovations of cultural heritage) and Innovation for Tourism Post Covid. How the coronavirus pandemic will affect the tourism sector and what changes it will bring, realistically no one can know yet. But one thing is for sure – lifestyle, business and thus tourism will be measured before and after the coronavirus and is needed change. Exactly through the same narrative – Rethinking Tourism B2B event, there will be an online international B2B webinar and B2B meetings organized by the Croatian Chamber of Commerce of the Zadar County Chamber. It will happen to be held on October 7 and 8, and will include webinars and B2B meetings 1: 1. The event is intended for all companies from the tourism sector, as well as those who do business with the tourism sector. A matchmaking event is a quick and easy way to meet potential partners to collaborate in face-to-face conversations.As part of the webinar on the innovative b2match platform, you can directly arrange B2B meetings with potential partners. Offer and search for products, services, partnerships, project collaborations, investment opportunities and expertise, or expand your professional network and meet new potential business partners through meetings. Event registrations are closing 06. October 2020. at 13:00. To learn more, click here Lectures by domestic and foreign tourism experts will focus on the following topics. Registered users can pre-arrange B2B meetings on the platform using keywords and filters to find interesting interlocutors.Attendance at the event is free. * B2B event Rethinking Tourism is part of the MISTRAL project (which also finances it), the Interreg MED program, which aims to strengthen international cooperation within the Blue Growth ecosystem and increase networking opportunities for SMEs, research centers, universities and clusters.last_img read more

Tuning in to the Channels

first_imgTo access this article REGISTER NOWWould you like print copies, app and digital replica access too? SUBSCRIBE for as little as £5 per week. Would you like to read more?Register for free to finish this article.Sign up now for the following benefits:Four FREE articles of your choice per monthBreaking news, comment and analysis from industry experts as it happensChoose from our portfolio of email newsletterslast_img

Nudgee property, on two lots, sells under the hammer

first_img21 Lionel St, Nudgee.A home at 21 Lionel St, Nudgee, has provided the perfect property ladder step-up for one northside couple.The first-time buyers kept seven other registered bidders at bay on February 4 to secure the two-bedroom, one-bathroom home on 810sq m for $533,000. More from newsFor under $10m you can buy a luxurious home with a two-lane bowling alley5 Apr 2017Military and railway history come together on bush block24 Apr 201921 Lionel St, Nudgee.Amy Ireland, a sales consultant with Harcourts Pinnacle – Aspley, said the large site and renovation potential appealed to buyers.“It (bids) came down to $500 increments at one stage, so it was a long and spirited auction,” she said. And while Miss Ireland said the result exceeded the seller’s expectations, the buyers proved they could also spot a good deal.“I think they’ve got a great big block with a beautiful house with plenty of potential for an excellent price,” she said.Miss Ireland said buyers who identified well-located Nudgee investments with great potential were sure to profit.The house was on two lots, but Miss Ireland said council restrictions stopped the dwelling being removed, so subdivision was not possible. The restriction, however, helped the buyers to secure the property at a reasonable price.“Otherwise, if it was a splitter block, it would have been well into the mid-$600,000s,” she said.Miss Ireland said demand in Nudgee was high – and there were plenty of facilities to attract purchasers“We’re finding most properties are selling within seven-to-14 days – houses are moving, often with multiple buyers,” she said. “It’s an excellent market.”last_img read more

Sizzling solar giveaway

first_imgThe Orchard is offering a solar deal which could save home buyers more than $100,000 over 20 years. Sean Cochrane from Super Green Solutions with Pene Slogrove and Shawn Boyd from the OrchardBUYERS in the masterplanned community The Orchard are being given the opportunity to drive down their future power bills by installing solar.Developer Elements North Queensland has teamed up with Super Green Solutions and their partner builders to offer The Orchard buyers a solar package.The deal includes panels, hot water system and a battery that will eliminate the majority of power bills.The promotion is estimated to save eligible residents about $112,000 over the next 20 years.Elements North Queensland director Shawn Boyd said the campaign was designed to further The Orchard’s sustainability credentials and help residents pay off their homes sooner. “When we were thinking about the campaign, we really wanted to help our buyers gain some real and meaningful benefits but also further our sustainability messaging,” Mr Boyd said.More from news01:21Buyer demand explodes in Townsville’s 2019 flood-affected suburbs12 Sep 202001:21‘Giant surge’ in new home sales lifts Townsville property market10 Sep 2020“We know that it is everyone’s dream to own their own home outright and this offer has the potential to save buyers around $112,000 to help them pay off their homes sooner. “But more than that, it contributes to building a stronger, more resilient and sustainable community – one that people can feel proud to be part of and that’s what we want to create at The Orchard.”The Orchard’s Solar Package campaign includes 5.4kW solar system, an Apricus solar hot water system and a 6.5kW Solax battery storage system valued at more than $21,450. Stage One of The Orchard has 34 fully services new home sites ranging from 1000sq m to 2400sq m, which are ready to build on now.The large-lot masterplanned community is on Darling Road in Jensen close to schools and shops and 1km away from the Ring Road which links to Townsville Hospital, Lavarack Barracks and James Cook University.Mr Boyd said the promotion means that people buying a home site at The Orchard with a participating builder won’t have to pay any out-of-pocket costs for the solar package. “With the cost of power continuing to go up, installing renewable energy solutions on your home sooner will save you a huge amount in to the future,” Mr Boyd said.For further information about The Orchard, please visit www.theorchardnq.com.au or call Penelope Slogrove on 0439 749 700.last_img read more

​AP4, AP1 say time limits on COVID-linked ownership draft too tight

first_imgTwo of the main buffer funds in Sweden’s state pension system have welcomed a proposal giving them extra room on ownership in order to provide pandemic-hit companies with new capital, but say the time limits being put forward are too restrictive.At the end of June, the Swedish Finance Ministry published draft legislation temporarily changing the investment rules for AP1-4, raising the cap on votes the individual funds may hold in any single listed company in Sweden to 15% from 10% – provided the extra equity was acquired via a new share issue.In its response to the consultation, which officially ended yesterday, AP4 said it was positive about the proposal, but that the measures should start sooner than envisaged and last for longer.It said that apart from supporting the companies the AP funds invested in directly, capital injections facilitated by the new rules would also feed through into benefits for other firms such as partners and subcontractors, which may also be challenged by COVID-19. The SEK403bn (€38.7bn) fund said the negative effects of the pandemic were already great and the need for capital likely to be significant in the coming months.“It is therefore unfortunate that entry into force can only be expected to take place as late as 1 November 2020,” the fund said.AP4 also said that because the pandemic’s consequences were likely to be not only extensive but also prolonged, 30 June 2021 was too soon to end the ownership extension.“In order for the provision to have the desired effect, it is therefore proposed that the period for the application of the amendment be extended to at least 30 June 2022,” the pension fund said.Meanwhile, AP1 – while also declaring itself generally positive about the proposals – took issue with the length of time that the funds would be permitted to hold onto extra capital that exceeded the normal 10% ceiling.In the draft legislation, the funds would have seven years in which to unwind these holdings.“The proposed period for divestment seems quite long, but the fact that holdings under the temporary rule are limited in time at all means that in the worst case AP1 would risk having to sell in an economically unfavourable situation and thereby harm the return,” it said.Because of this, the fund said it proposed having no time limit on investments made under the temporary rule.Looking for IPE’s latest magazine? Read the digital edition here.last_img read more